30 August 2007
29 August 2007
The Lieberman Effect
Well ... Since it doesn't look like Cheney is going to step-down any time soon, I'm going to go out on a limb a little early and predict that the 2008 elections will see the first stage collapse of America's two-party system. And here's how I think it will happen:
In a fashion similar to Senator Joe Lieberman's 2006 re-election (but writ large), both sides will cleave into a "party faction" and a "base faction".
On the Democrat side, for example, I predict Hillary will control the "party faction" (and the traditional party apparatus). She will be opposed; however, by the "base faction" of the left (epitomized by the MoveOns) -- who will have their own nominee and fancy themselves as in control.
For the Republicans, I suspect Mitt will lead the "party faction" -but- the primary will actually be won by an independent who wins hearts of "the base". That is, unless there's a major terrorist attack.
I think this dynamic is exacerbated by the complete breakdown of the parties' convention mechanism. No longer are the political conventions a mechanism for hashing-out intra-party differences (in order to select the best representative). They're now simply big commercial events -- Superbowls of politics where the outcome is known well in advance of the closing gavel. Because of this, I predict, the real vetting process moves to the net -and- folks begin to realize it's turning into a 4-way race.
Enter the Libertarians, Greens, Reforms, et al.
Everyone decides they have a shot at the brass ring and will attempt to muscle into the final debates (a move both encouraged and facilitated by the internet) -- then -- Katie bar the doors -- we'll have a 5-way, 6-way race?
Where do we end up? In a spot where the next President of the United States is likely to win with less than 40% of the vote.
Mark my words!
In a fashion similar to Senator Joe Lieberman's 2006 re-election (but writ large), both sides will cleave into a "party faction" and a "base faction".
On the Democrat side, for example, I predict Hillary will control the "party faction" (and the traditional party apparatus). She will be opposed; however, by the "base faction" of the left (epitomized by the MoveOns) -- who will have their own nominee and fancy themselves as in control.
For the Republicans, I suspect Mitt will lead the "party faction" -but- the primary will actually be won by an independent who wins hearts of "the base". That is, unless there's a major terrorist attack.
I think this dynamic is exacerbated by the complete breakdown of the parties' convention mechanism. No longer are the political conventions a mechanism for hashing-out intra-party differences (in order to select the best representative). They're now simply big commercial events -- Superbowls of politics where the outcome is known well in advance of the closing gavel. Because of this, I predict, the real vetting process moves to the net -and- folks begin to realize it's turning into a 4-way race.
Enter the Libertarians, Greens, Reforms, et al.
Everyone decides they have a shot at the brass ring and will attempt to muscle into the final debates (a move both encouraged and facilitated by the internet) -- then -- Katie bar the doors -- we'll have a 5-way, 6-way race?
Where do we end up? In a spot where the next President of the United States is likely to win with less than 40% of the vote.
Mark my words!
12 August 2007
11 August 2007
Abrams Mischief?
J.J. Abrams (the director taking control of the Star Trek franchise) is suspected of perpetrating various video clips to promote Cloverfield (aka 1-18-08). Though, that is rumored to be a monster movie.
The footage below was leaked to the net (supposedly shot in Haiti last Monday, August 6th). In any case, IMHO: it's the best unexplained viral since SciFi channel sneaked their the infamous Trade Center clip into the UFO mythology.
Check it out:
So, my question is: Who did this?
The footage below was leaked to the net (supposedly shot in Haiti last Monday, August 6th). In any case, IMHO: it's the best unexplained viral since SciFi channel sneaked their the infamous Trade Center clip into the UFO mythology.
Check it out:
So, my question is: Who did this?
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